Boeing expects an interest for very nearly 42,600 new carriers throughout the following 20 years, a number that is somewhat more hopeful than Airbus’ conjecture.
On June 17, just before the start of the Paris Air Show, Boeing released its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook. By 2042, the US manufacturer anticipates a global demand of 42,595 new jets worth $8 trillion. This was based on the global fleet nearly doubling to 48,600 jets and expanding by 3.5 percent annually, with airlines replacing approximately half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models, and passenger traffic continuing to outpace global economic growth by 2.6 percent.
In June, Airbus published its 20-year forecast, stating that 40,850 aircraft would be required. Compared to the 39,500 aircraft the European manufacturer anticipated in 2022, that represented a significant increase. In its 2023 conjecture, Airbus said the larger part — around 32,600 airplanes — would be narrowbodies and 8,200 would be widebodies, while there would likewise be 2,510 tanker conveyances, with 920 of those being new and 1,600 being changes from traveler airplane.
According to Boeing’s Outlook, narrowbodies will account for 75% of all new deliveries, or 32,420 aircraft, which is a slightly different mix. Widebodies will account for 20% of deliveries, or 7,440 aircraft. There will be a need for 1,810 regional jets and 2,800 freighters, with 925 new-build cargo aircraft.
Additionally, Boeing asserts that Asia-Pacific markets will account for more than 40% of global demand, with China accounting for half of that total. With India accounting for more than 90% of the region’s passenger traffic, South Asia’s fleet will expand at the world’s fastest rate of more than 7% per year. Europe and North America will each contribute approximately 20% of global demand. In addition, LCCs will account for more than 40% of the narrowbody fleet in 2042, compared to 10% in 1990.